Prime Minister Carney’s plan to “Build Canada Strong for All” risks falling short of its own promise. The federal government’s spring economic update includes no new investment in child care, raising serious concerns about whether women will be meaningfully included in Canada’s economic renewal. The Early Learning and Child Care Infrastructure Fund is set to expire at the end of this fiscal year, with no new transfer payments to provinces and territories for expansion or quality improvement.

Canada is still short by between 278,000 and 384,000 to meet the goal of covering 59% of children aged zero to five. In a system still short, standing still is effectively going backward. Reduced fees have driven up demand, but without more spaces, families are trading high costs for long, unmanageable waitlists. Funding agreements with Ontario and Alberta expire in less than a year, and some provinces may withdraw from the $10 a Day program entirely if federal contributions don’t keep pace.

The economic case for investment is well established. The evidence base for child care investment continues to grow. New analysis of Québec’s funded system by economists Baker, Gruber, and Milligan confirms that mothers who participated earned significantly higher lifetime incomes, generating tax revenue and reducing reliance on other public programs. The program pays for itself. Replicating that model nationally could add over 220,000 women to the workforce and raise Canada’s economic output by tens of billions annually.

Without a meaningful increase in federal transfer payments, provinces and territories will be left without the resources to grow the system or maintain the quality gains made so far.

Moving forward: 

Canada’s child care gap is a financing problem. Providers are willing to expand. The revenues are increasingly stable and publicly funded. What’s missing is a federal commitment that makes expansion financeable.

The federal government has the tools. We are calling on the government to take three concrete steps:

• Renew the CWELCC agreements for 2026–2031. Without continued federal commitment, system stability collapses, and with it, the revenue certainty that lenders and operators need to plan and build.
• Implement the already-announced $1 billion child care expansion loan and grants program so that non-profit providers who are operationally viable but lack conventional collateral can finally access the capital they need to build new spaces.
• Deploy existing federal financing tools at scale. The mechanisms used in housing and infrastructure, long-term low-cost loans and social finance, should be applied to child care.